Heading into the matchup against Texas A&M, it’s clear that Florida football fans have little confidence in the Gators’ chances this Saturday. With Vegas giving the Aggies a three-point edge, much of the spotlight will be on Billy Napier’s quarterback decisions throughout the game.
A breakdown of the two offenses shows that while Florida likely holds an advantage at quarterback, the rest of the offensive lineup seems to favor Texas A&M.
Quarterbacks
The storyline heading into this game revolves around uncertainty at the quarterback position for both teams. Florida plans to start Graham Mertz, with DJ Lagway expected to see some snaps as well.
Texas A&M, on the other hand, has Conner Weigman listed as questionable. A former five-star recruit, Weigman showed promise last season before a foot injury sidelined him.
Similarly, Mertz had a solid season before suffering a collarbone injury.
Both quarterbacks faced challenges in their season openers. Mertz completed 55% of his passes with an average depth of 12 yards, while Weigman struggled more, completing just 40% with an average depth of 7 yards.
Factoring in that Florida’s backup situation looks stronger than Texas A&M’s, we’re giving the Gators the edge at quarterback.
Wide Receivers
Through two games, Cyrus Allen has been the only Texas A&M receiver to surpass 40 total yards. A transfer from Louisiana Tech, Allen tallied over 700 yards last season.
Noah Thomas and Jahdae Walker round out the Aggies’ main receiving corps. Walker, who had six receptions against Notre Dame, is coming off a 590-yard season.
On Florida’s side, last week gave a glimpse of what the Gators’ receivers can do when paired with a quarterback who has the arm strength to find them. However, a key concern for Florida heading into this matchup is the health of Tre Wilson.
Elijhah Badger, who has back-to-back 700-yard seasons at Arizona State, already has 166 yards in 2024. The challenge in determining which team has the advantage at receiver is who will be available. If Wilson is sidelined, Tank Hawkins could step into his role as an even faster option. Chimere Dike will also see significant playing time, but through two games, he’s only recorded two catches.
Running Back
After an early training camp injury, Montrell Johnson has returned to form for Florida and has largely lived up to expectations. His standout moment so far is a 71-yard touchdown run against Miami, but he’s also been solid overall, averaging 3.58 yards after contact—ranking 42nd nationally among the 111 running backs with at least 20 carries.
Le’Veon Moss comes with a stronger recruiting background, having been a top-100 overall prospect. Last season, Moss posted 96 carries at a solid five yards per attempt, and this year, he’s improved to 5.3 yards per carry with an average of 3.69 yards after contact, placing him 39th nationally.
The starting running backs are fairly even, but Texas A&M appears to have the edge in depth. Florida’s backup, Treyaun Webb, has managed just seven carries for 15 yards over two games, while the Aggies’ Amari Daniels has been more productive with 17 carries, averaging 5.6 yards per attempt.
Tight End
Neither team boasts a game-changing presence at tight end. Florida’s tight ends have managed five receptions through two games, while Texas A&M’s have four.
The key difference lies in pass protection. For the Aggies, Tre Watson and Theo Melin Ohrstrom provide adequate pass-blocking support, as does Hayden Hansen for Florida. However, Arlis Boardingham has struggled in blocking duties, a weakness that dates back to last season.
Offensive Line
Much like the wide receiver position, there’s a clear difference between the ideal lineup for Florida and the one actually being fielded. The decision to rotate Austin Barber and Devon Manuel at left tackle is puzzling, especially given the glaring issues at right tackle.
Kamryn Waites struggled significantly against Miami and was far from solid against Samford. He’s been sharing time at right tackle with Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson, who was only slightly better against Miami and adequate against Samford.
On the Texas A&M side, their tackles, Dametrious Crownover and Trey Zuhn, have posted metrics that are comparable to Florida’s tackles, making this position fairly even between the two teams.
