As speculation intensifies around Billy Napier’s future with the Florida Gators, there’s more to consider than just his 12-16 record and the roughly $27 million buyout.
Some factors are specific to Florida, while others are connected to broader circumstances, making this coaching cycle unlike any we’ve seen in college football. Here are some key issues at play that go beyond the upcoming game at Mississippi State and what follows:
Consider the challenge with the new calendar. How can a coach secure or salvage a recruiting class in just a few days? Would a coach even entertain offers or take calls about leaving their current team before the end of the regular season or a conference championship? And is that the type of coach a top-tier program would want to hire?
The expanded 12-team playoff complicates matters further. Mike Norvell’s Memphis team in 2019, which missed the four-team playoff, would have made the 12-team bracket. How would he have managed a potential job offer from Florida State while leading Memphis through a playoff run? Coaches like Scott Frost (2017 UCF) and P.J. Fleck (2016 Western Michigan) would have faced similar dilemmas with Nebraska and Minnesota.
Brian Kelly offers another example. Like Norvell, Frost, and Fleck, he coached a team that narrowly missed the four-team playoff but would have made the expanded version. However, Kelly made the move from one powerhouse (Notre Dame) to another (LSU). Could he have recruited for LSU while simultaneously preparing Notre Dame for a first-round playoff game?
The first key issue is the timing.
The transfer portal opens on Dec. 9, and the NCAA is considering eliminating the spring transfer window. If most player transfers are confined to a 30-day period in December and January, a new coach would have to immediately manage incoming and outgoing players, with limited options to rebuild the roster in the spring. Combine this with the recruitment/playoff timeline, and what’s already a tough job becomes even more chaotic.
