In June, 247Sports predicted that the Alabama Crimson Tide and four other SEC teams would end the regular season with a 10-2 record, while Texas was expected to finish 11-1. This scenario would likely result in one 10-2 SEC team being left out of the playoffs.
Given Alabama’s challenging schedule, it seemed unlikely that the Crimson Tide would be the team excluded from the playoffs. There was also a slight possibility that the CFB Playoff Selection Committee might choose to include six SEC teams due to the conference’s depth of top contenders.
Has the SEC’s Playoff outlook shifted since June? The preseason AP Poll features eight SEC teams in the top 16, with another at No. 20. This raises the question of whether the Selection Committee might surprise and upset the college football community by selecting six (or even seven) SEC teams. Historically, Selection Committees have avoided making controversial decisions.
One potential shock could be the exclusion of multiple 10-2 SEC teams from the Playoffs. USA Today’s Blake Toppmeyer suggests that up to nine SEC teams could end the regular season with a 10-2 record. While “could” doesn’t guarantee “will,” if seven teams do achieve that record, it’s likely that two 10-2 SEC teams would end up missing the playoffs, marking a disappointing 2024 season for them.
What is the situation for the Alabama Crimson Tide?
Predictions for the Crimson Tide range from nine to 11 wins, with a 10-2 regular season being the most likely outcome. While Alabama fans are justified in their belief that the Tide could defeat Georgia in September, it remains the game most likely to result in a loss for Alabama.
If Georgia wins, Alabama will need to secure victories in three out of four crucial games to finish the regular season at no worse than 10-2. The four opponents—Tennessee, Missouri, LSU, and Oklahoma—are each projected by the ESPN FPI to have a 25% or higher chance of making the Playoffs. Therefore, Alabama must defeat three of these teams. Achieving this, along with the Crimson Tide’s strong strength of schedule, should ensure that Alabama does not end up as a ‘failed’ 10-2 team.
