The Minnesota Vikings have made it clear through their first three games that they are a serious postseason contender. This was underscored by their dominant win over the Houston Texans, a team that had the third-best Super Bowl odds before facing the Vikings. In Week 2, Minnesota also convincingly defeated the 49ers, a team with the second-best Super Bowl odds.
While the betting markets have started to adjust to the Vikings’ success, they may still be undervalued. For instance, their odds to win the NFC North have improved from +1000 to +195 according to DraftKings, but their NFC Championship odds sit at +1200, equal to the Cowboys despite their poor start, and behind the 49ers (+300), Lions, and Packers. If the season ended today, the Vikings would hold the top seed in the NFC.
Vikings’ 3-0 Start Well Supported by Other Metrics
Unlike their 2022 season, where the Vikings’ 13-4 record wasn’t backed by key metrics like DVOA or point differential, this year’s performance is well-supported across multiple major analytics. Metrics such as PFF grades, DVOA, point differential, EPA, and strength of schedule all align with their strong showing. The Vikings are ranked in the top five across most of these categories, despite facing tougher competition than other top teams:
– 4th in overall PFF team grade (82.7)
– 4th in total DVOA (43.7%)
– 3rd in point differential (+55)
– 4th in defensive EPA per play (-0.24)
– 8th in offensive EPA per play (+0.04)
– 17th in strength of schedule
For comparison, the three teams with better DVOA than Minnesota have faced three of the four easiest schedules so far.
Vikings Success is Broad-Based
The Vikings’ success this season has been well-rounded, excelling in all phases of the game—offense, defense, and special teams. Offensively, they have been effective both running and passing, and their defense has been equally strong against the run and the pass. They rank 7th in both red zone touchdown percentage (offense) and touchdowns allowed (defense), and they are 3rd in third-down conversion rate on offense and 10th on defense.
This balance makes it challenging for opponents to game-plan against them. Teams can’t simply focus on taking away one aspect of the Vikings’ play, as they are capable of winning in various ways. The Vikings’ schemes and personnel allow them to control the game on both sides of the ball.
Defensively, a key change from last season is Brian Flores’ ability to incorporate more man coverage, which has confused quarterbacks with presnap disguises and forced them to hold the ball longer. This has contributed to the Vikings leading the league in sacks after three weeks. Additionally, Flores’ stacked box looks have effectively discouraged opponents from running. The Vikings rank second in fewest rush attempts and rush yards allowed, and third in fewest yards per carry.
On top of this, the Vikings have upgraded defensively, with players like Andrew Van Ginkel, Jonathan Greenard, Pat Jones II, Blake Cashman, Stephon Gilmore, Shaq Griffin, Jerry Tillery, Dallas Turner, and Jihad Ward all performing better than their predecessors from last season. This has significantly improved the team’s defensive depth.
Offensively, Sam Darnold has been the biggest surprise, playing the best football of his career. He ranks in the top ten among starting quarterbacks in major passing metrics like passer rating, QBR, EPA per dropback, and CPOE (completion percentage over expected), and is even in the top five in some of these categories.
Darnold’s success is even more impressive given that he’s faced significant pressure, with a 39.3% pressure rate (fifth-highest in the league). The Vikings’ offensive line has struggled in pass protection, ranking 29th in pass-blocking efficiency, with Ed Ingram and Garrett Bradbury being the primary culprits. Ingram ranks as the second-worst starting guard in pass blocking and Bradbury as the worst center. Combined, they’ve allowed 20 of the 33 pressures the offensive line has given up.
However, there are bright spots on the line. New left guard Blake Brandel ranks third in pass-blocking efficiency, allowing just one hurry so far. Additionally, there’s hope for improvement if Dalton Risner returns from injury or if Tyrese Robinson is considered as a replacement for Ingram, who has also struggled as a run blocker.
More Help is On the Way
In addition to the potential replacement of Ed Ingram if his struggles continue, the Vikings’ offense is set to receive a significant boost with the impending return of Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, potentially as soon as after their bye week. Both players would add firepower to the offense, making it even more difficult for defenses to contain Minnesota’s attack.
In the meantime, the Vikings have benefited from the emergence of wide receiver Jalen Nailor and left guard Blake Brandel. Nailor has stepped up to provide another reliable option in the receiving corps, while Brandel has upgraded a weak spot on the offensive line. Additionally, the arrival of running back Aaron Jones has been a key factor, as he’s made the most of his touches and provided another dynamic element to the Vikings’ offense.
Bottom Line
The Vikings are off to one of their strongest starts in recent years, with success that has been both broad-based and balanced. While local fans expected improvement defensively, especially with Brian Flores at the helm, it’s been a surprise to the national audience. Sam Darnold’s performance has exceeded expectations through the first three games, while Aaron Jones’ addition has revitalized the running game alongside Ty Chandler’s solid contributions. Remarkably, the Vikings have achieved all of this without key offensive weapons Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, and against two of the top Super Bowl contenders—the 49ers and Texans.
Though the season is long and unpredictable, the Vikings are poised to shatter preseason expectations of 6.5 wins. They would currently hold the top seed in the NFC if the playoffs began this weekend, and their rise from the mid-20s in power rankings to the top five in just three weeks has been dramatic. Key players like Harrison Smith and Aaron Jones have spoken about a special feeling surrounding this team that they haven’t experienced before.
Kevin O’Connell has become the frontrunner for Coach of the Year, while Brian Flores is again drawing attention as a potential head coach candidate. Sam Darnold, who started the season as a backup, now holds the second-best odds for Comeback Player of the Year and the 11th-best odds for MVP. Justin Jefferson has the second-best odds for Offensive Player of the Year, Dallas Turner is a favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year, and Jonathan Greenard is in the top ten for Defensive Player of the Year. Additionally, new kicker Will Reichard remains perfect, having not missed a field goal or extra point.
With so much going right for the Vikings, their early-season surge is one to watch closely. Stay tuned for what could be a special season.
