What are the real plans for the Chicago Cubs this offseason?
Recent speculation has connected the Chicago Cubs to All-Star slugger Pete Alonso as a key target in the upcoming free agency period. However, the significant funds required to sign a player of Alonso’s caliber would be better invested in securing top-tier starting pitchers.
With veteran pitcher Kyle Hendricks, who has been with the Cubs for his entire 11-year career, potentially making his last appearance for the team on September 28, 2024, the Cubs will need to acquire a solid veteran starter to fill his role and strengthen the rotation.
A high-quality starter would enhance an already impressive pitching staff. Combining a top-tier pitcher with talents like Justin Steele and rookie sensation Shota Imanaga could elevate the Cubs’ rotation to one of the best in the National League. Furthermore, they would have strong options for the fourth and fifth spots, such as Javier Assad and Jameson Taillon, along with additional depth pieces.
Signing a star like Pete Alonso would likely cost over $200 million for a contract spanning 8 to 10 years. In a recent media conference, GM Jed Hoyer emphasized the need for a star-caliber player, which fits the profile of someone like Alonso. However, the team’s primary requirement is a true ace in the starting rotation, not just a slugger.
Cody Bellinger’s potential opt-out this year adds another layer of complexity to the Cubs’ plans. If Bellinger stays, he would likely take over at first base, particularly with the emergence of the rising star Pete Crow-Armstrong. This past season, Bellinger split his time between the outfield and first base, playing only 22 games at first while Michael Bush handled the majority of the duties with 142 games.
As mentioned earlier, the funds required to sign a player like Alonso should be redirected toward securing top starting pitchers. Some of the notable free-agent starters available this period include Corbin Burnes (30), Blake Snell (if he opts out, 32), Max Fried (31), Jack Flaherty (29), Jordan Montgomery (32), and Shane Bieber (30).
The likelihood of the Cubs landing a high-profile pitcher like Burnes or Snell is significant, given their status as a historic franchise in a large market willing to invest. Additionally, the competitiveness of their division would attract interest from free agents, and these pitchers would command the $200 million-plus contracts the Cubs are prepared to offer.
Who should the Chicago Cubs target for Starting Pitching?
Corbin Burnes
Corbin Burnes, at 30 years old, is widely regarded as the premier free agent, particularly among starting pitchers, for the 2024-2025 free agency period. A former Cy Young winner with the Brewers in 2021, Burnes had an impressive walk year, finishing with a record of 15-9, a 2.92 ERA, and starting all 32 games. He logged 194.1 innings, issued 48 walks, struck out 181 batters, and maintained a 1.096 WHIP.
His contract is likely to mirror those of recent high-profile pitchers like Zack Wheeler (3 years, $126 million) or Aaron Nola (7 years, $172 million), both of whom received substantial long-term deals. Given Burnes’ talent level, his recent performance, and his Cy Young pedigree, it’s reasonable to expect him to command a contract in the range of $180-200 million, possibly exceeding Nola’s deal. However, he may achieve an average annual value (AAV) similar to Wheeler’s at around $42 million.
Additionally, it’s noteworthy that the Cubs’ current manager, Craig Counsell, was Burnes’ manager during his time with the Brewers, which could influence the Cubs’ pursuit of him.
Shane Bieber
Shane Bieber, 30, entered the 2024 season aiming to perform well enough in his contract year to secure a lucrative deal. Unfortunately, his campaign was cut short after just two starts due to Tommy John surgery. As a result, teams may be cautious about signing a player recovering from such a significant injury.
However, this situation could present a unique opportunity for the Chicago Cubs. They might be able to sign Bieber at a considerably lower rate than expected, avoiding the typical 5-7 year contract valued at over $140 million that a pitcher of his caliber would command under normal circumstances. Despite winning the Cy Young in the shortened 2020 season, his injury status may make teams hesitant.
Throughout his 7-year career, Bieber has established himself as a premier starter, boasting a record of 62-32 and a 3.22 ERA—remarkably similar to Corbin Burnes’ 60-36 record and 3.19 ERA. Signing Bieber would provide the Cubs with a Cy Young-caliber pitcher at a fraction of the cost, a player eager to prove himself and reclaim his position among the league’s top starters. He could also provide valuable veteran leadership to the younger pitchers in the rotation.
A potential contract could involve a 4-year deal reflecting his injury status, with 2-3 club/player options to extend it to a total of 7 years. Given that Bieber currently makes $13.125 million, an increase of at least $5 million is reasonable. A comparable deal to consider is Taijuan Walker’s 4-year, $72 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2023, even though Walker is not at Bieber’s talent level.
If the Cubs offer Bieber a similar length of 4 years but increase the salary to $100 million, that would average $20 million per year. Including 3 club/player options at $20 million each would result in a total contract value of 7 years and $140 million.
While other potential free agents could be valuable additions, they may not possess the star power of Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber. Although Blake Snell would be a great fit, his decision to opt out of his current deal will influence that possibility.
Overall, the Cubs should prioritize their spending this offseason on enhancing the starting rotation, focusing on acquiring a marquee pitcher to elevate the team’s competitiveness.
