The future of Mitch Marner’s contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs remains uncertain, but one thing seems likely: Marner will begin the 2024-25 season in the final year of his contract without an extension.
In a recent episode of the *Sticks in the 6ix* podcast, beat writer David Alter discussed the implications of Marner not having an extension before the season starts. Alter suggested that if the Leafs are unable to secure a deal before the season begins, it might be wiser to wait until the end of the 2024-25 season, as signing him mid-season could lead to overpaying.
This idea comes from the belief that Marner has consistently delivered strong regular-season performances, but his production tends to dip in the playoffs.
With that in mind, here’s a look at four potential destinations for Marner if he becomes a free agent after this season.
Marner Stays With the Maple Leafs
Ideally, many fans in Toronto are hoping the Maple Leafs can lock Marner into a long-term deal and see him find his stride in the playoffs. In a perfect scenario, that would be the outcome.
However, there’s an ongoing discussion about his value to a team that needs players to accept team-friendly deals to stay competitive. William Nylander recently signed a long-term contract at $11.5 million per year, which could look like a bargain as the salary cap rises. Nylander’s recent production, including back-to-back 40-goal seasons and nearly hitting 100 points in 2023-24, has surpassed Marner’s, despite Marner’s slight edge in playoff output. This raises the question of Marner’s future salary.
If I were Brad Treliving and the Maple Leafs, I’d aim to keep Marner within the $10 million to $11 million range on a five- to six-year contract—if he’s willing to remain with this core group in Toronto.
Marner to Utah HC as a Realistic Option
Looking ahead, Utah Hockey Club has around $8 million in cap space going into the season. After this year, players like Alex Kerfoot, Nick Bjugstad, Michael Carcone, Ian Cole, Robert Bortuzzo, and Karel Vejmelka become unrestricted free agents (UFAs), potentially freeing up more cap space for a player of Marner’s caliber.
Adding Marner’s talent would bolster a roster that already features promising players like Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley, and Josh Doan. Though Utah doesn’t offer the same media attention as Toronto, the buzz around a new NHL franchise could be an exciting change for Marner.
The team’s move to Utah and the potential addition of Marner could reignite playoff hopes for a squad that just missed making a playoff push in their final year in Arizona.
Marner’s Potential Fit with the San Jose Sharks
San Jose could also be an intriguing destination for Marner, and Joe Thornton might have positive words about his former team and city. The Sharks are in the midst of a rebuild, but by the 2024-25 season, they’ll have around $10 million in cap space. They’ve assembled an interesting young roster featuring players like Will Smith, William Eklund, and Macklin Celebrini, and could become a bubble team in the near future.
The big question is whether Marner would want to be the veteran presence during a rebuild. The Sharks can likely offer a sizable contract, but would it align with Marner’s ambitions as he enters his prime?
While the year-round sunshine of California might be tempting, Marner, in his late 20s, may not want to join a rebuilding team when he’s at the peak of his career.
A Reunion with Dubas in Pittsburgh?
Finally, though perhaps the least likely of the four, is the possibility of Marner reuniting with former Leafs GM Kyle Dubas in Pittsburgh. The Penguins are over the cap heading into 2024-25, but players like Lars Eller, Anthony Beauvillier, Matt Nieto, and Jesse Puljujarvi will be UFAs after the season, which could open up some space.
Dubas has shown loyalty to his core players in the past, as seen in his handling of Marner’s last contract in Toronto and the recent moves bringing Jason Spezza and Wes Clark to Pittsburgh. If Marner reaches free agency, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Dubas try to bring him to the Penguins for one last push with Sidney Crosby.
All of this depends on whether Marner signs a new deal with the Maple Leafs. While an in-season extension seems unlikely, the possibility of Marner staying in Toronto shouldn’t be ruled out entirely. If not, these cities could be strong contenders for his next destination.
