Rutgers isn’t at immediate risk of its season spiraling, but getting back to winning would help prevent that possibility. After a tough week with two close losses totaling three points, and dropping three of their last four games, the Scarlet Knights face a pivotal stretch. They’ll play three games over the next three weeks, starting with an 8-3 Wake Forest team on Saturday, followed by Bucknell and Coppin State on the subsequent weekends, all of which Rutgers must win.
If Rutgers is upset by any of these beatable opponents, they’ll restart Big Ten play against top-ranked Purdue on January 2, once again with limited margin for error in their NCAA Tournament quest.
Currently, the Scarlet Knights (6-4, 1-1) are ranked 44th in the NET standings, with their postseason hopes still intact. However, they have only one significant win—a Quadrant 1 victory over Indiana—alongside results that do little to bolster their résumé and could even harm it. Their non-conference success has been limited, with a Q2 win over UMass-Lowell that’s close to dropping to Q3, four Q4 wins unlikely to improve, and an 0-2 record in Q3 games with losses to Seton Hall and Temple.
Wake Forest presents an opportunity to boost their record. With Wake Forest at 98 in the NET rankings, a win would count as Q3, while a loss would be a Q2 if Wake’s NET rises after the game. Earlier in the season, the Demon Deacons proved they could handle Big Ten road challenges, beating Wisconsin 78-75 at the Kohl Center, though they followed with losses to Clemson, LSU, and a narrow win over Appalachian State.
Wake Forest doesn’t excel in any single area, but outside of offensive rebounding (278th nationally), they aren’t particularly weak either. They rank 73rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 105th in adjusted defensive efficiency, making them fairly average across most stats, according to KenPom. Key players include senior guard Tyree Appleby, who is averaging 18.7 points, and Damari Monsanto, a wing who shoots 40% from three but missed the last game due to coach-imposed discipline.
For Rutgers, it’s essential not to let Wake Forest find any exceptional rhythm. A loss would mean going through non-conference play without a top-100 KenPom win since 2016-17. Defeats against Bucknell or Coppin State would be even more alarming, with consequences loud enough to drown out all New Year’s celebrations.
Here are three keys for Rutgers to finish the 2022 calendar year strong and start 2023 on the front foot: Maintain defensive dominance
Rutgers ranks either third (KenPom) or fourth (Bart Torvik) nationally in defensive efficiency, a testament to their suffocating defense this season. No matter the ranking source, the Scarlet Knights have consistently neutralized opposing offenses.
They limit opponents to a 40.9% effective field goal percentage (6th nationally), including a mere 22.8% from beyond the arc (2nd nationally). They also force turnovers on 25.4% of defensive possessions (12th nationally), with steals coming on 14.7% of possessions (7th nationally), and block 11.8% of opponents’ two-point attempts (62nd nationally).
This stout defense has led to an impressive feat: Rutgers has yet to allow any opponent to score over one point per possession in a full game this season, a distinction held by only 11 of the top 20 defenses on Bart Torvik. In contrast, last season, the Scarlet Knights allowed at least one point per possession in 13 out of 32 games (40.6%), including against teams like NJIT and Maine.
As has been the case under head coach Steve Pikiell, defense remains the core of Rutgers’ success. They will need to maintain this defensive dominance against Wake Forest, which is the only team to score over one point per possession against Wisconsin’s seventh-ranked defense this season.
Make some strides offensively
Rutgers’ elite defense has been the key to their dominant victories over four sub-200 teams earlier this season, winning by an average of 35.5 points. However, their offensive struggles have been evident, with the team ranking 205th nationally in offensive efficiency, per Bart Torvik. The issues worsen against stronger competition, where they rank 242nd in offensive efficiency in games against Top 100 teams, averaging just .95 points per possession.
The offensive struggles are spread across various areas:
– **Scoring Around the Basket:** Rutgers has had significant difficulty finishing near the rim, ranking poorly in multiple metrics: 259th in Bart Torvik’s “Close 2” shooting percentage (55.1%), 296th in hoop-math’s “FG% at the rim” (55.3%), and 290th in Synergy’s “lay-up” field goal percentage (51.2%). Only Cam Spencer and Antwone Woolfolk have been efficient around the basket, with others like Derek Simpson (28%) and Cliff Omoruyi (47.2%) struggling.
– **Three-Point Shooting:** Rutgers doesn’t shoot many three-pointers (30.2% of their attempts, ranked 324th nationally) and has been ineffective when they do, with a 30.9% success rate (304th nationally). Spencer (39.1%) is the only player shooting at a decent clip, but he has struggled against stronger opponents, hitting just 3-of-19 (15.8%) in five games against mid-to-high-major teams.
– **Turnovers:** Rutgers also struggles with turnovers, committing them on 22.3% of possessions in games against top-100 opponents (235th nationally). Key offenders include Woolfolk, McConnell, and Mulcahy, with 18 turnovers in a season-high performance against Seton Hall and similar issues in games against Miami, Indiana, and Ohio State.
For Rutgers to secure a win against Wake Forest, improvement in at least one of these areas would be essential. If they can improve across the board, their offense could finally complement their strong defense.
However, if these struggles persist, the team will need to continue limiting opponents to the 50s and 60s in scoring and squeeze out close wins—a strategy that may not be sustainable in the long term. Additionally, they need to find a reliable closer for crunch-time situations. With former stars Geo Baker and Ron Harper Jr. no longer on the team, Rutgers has yet to identify someone who can step up in the final moments to take the crucial shot. They are 0-3 in games where the score was within one possession in the final minute, including a controversial loss to Ohio State.
As Geo Baker pointed out, while the team has capable players, none have yet shown the confidence to take over in the final moments. A player needs to emerge who can seize control of these critical situations. A win against Wake Forest would go a long way in stabilizing the team and potentially addressing these issues.
